PREDICTION: MAY 08, 2020 ALL U.S. HOSPITAL BEDS FILLED:

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PREDICTION: MAY 08, 2020 ALL U.S. HOSPITAL BEDS FILLED:

Postby Bruce Patrick Brychek » Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:40 am

Sunday
03.08.2020
7:40 p.m.,
Chicago, Illinois time:

Dear JFK Murder Solved Forum Members and Readers:

BEST REGARDS TO EVERYBODY:

Again, I certainly hope that this is wrong, but I just received this from another friend who is
monitoring the Coronavirus Predictions very closely.

As always, I strongly recommend that you first read, research, and study material completely yourself
about a Subject Matter, and then formulate your own Opinions and Theories.

Any additional analyses, interviews, investigations, readings, research, studies, thoughts, or writings
on any aspect of this Subject Matter ?

Bear in mind that we are trying to attract and educate a Whole New Generation of JFK Researchers
who may not be as well versed as you.

Comments ?

Respectfully,
BB.

Raw Conservative Opinions
Home Social All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By...
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All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients ‘By About May 8th’ Due To Coronavirus: Analysis
March 8, 2020 2329

A sobering analysis of how coronavirus is likely to impact the US healthcare system suggests that hospitals
will be quickly overwhelmed with patients, and that all available beds will be filled by around May 8th if
the virus tracks with Italy’s figures and 10% of patients require an ICU.

Of note, the Straits Times reported last week that thousands of people were waiting for hospital beds in
South Korea as the disease surges.

Liz Specht, a PhD in biology and the associate director of Science and Technology for the Good Food Institute
laid out her concerns in a lengthy Twitter thread on Friday, which you can see here on Twitter, or continue
reading below.

Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the
number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll
address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n — Liz Specht (@LizSpecht) March 7, 2020

Continued: 
• We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling
time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise
faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts.
• We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on.
Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go.
• As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to
detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow
significantly until hitting >>1% of susceptible population.
• What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital
beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted.
• The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any
given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit
fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc).
• Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization.
(Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow
as beds fill with COVID19 patients).
• By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course,
about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.)
• If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed
saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd.
• If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes
that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption.
• As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are
normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care &
hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now.
• Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical
masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing).
• There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day.
(This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every
turn.)
• As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will
soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each
HCW only got ONE mask per day.
• One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs
collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be
reused.
• How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured
overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas… again,
predominantly from China.
• Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We
can’t force trade in our favor.
• Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few
masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix.
• HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a
matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further
compounds both issues above.
• We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see
where this is going.
• Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe
cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve
population works.
• Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by
saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving
of a disease.
• I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-
magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers
emerging from Wuhan.
• Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many
countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be wrong, even substantially wrong.
• But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low,
don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”.
• These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that
healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system.
• And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the
stress of being ill-prepared?
• Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few
months and enough Robitussin to trip out.
• One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be
infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July
of this year.
• Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply
because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population.
• But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over
just a couple extra months.
• That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re
talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the
challenge.
• This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current
available data.
• That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda.
Stay safe out there. /end
Addendum: to anyone who found this useful or interesting, highly recommend you follow @trvrb who actually does modeling and forecasting
for a living. This thread is a great place to start: https://t.co/zCljWPKK54 https://t.co/lXcRniXBR7 — Liz Specht (@LizSpecht) March 7, 2020
Bruce Patrick Brychek
 
Posts: 2554
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 9:09 am

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